Friday, April 23, 2010

Disappointed? Not really..

This week, research was done but was not able to hit any trigger.
Many of the counters on my buy list keep going up, obviously a nitro- charged bull acting.
I find it hard to buy when everyone else is, somehow the price action seems to prove otherwise.

The sovereign risks, China's property rush, impending corporate debt problems and a high likelihood of rising interest rate lingers in the backdrop, risks that are too glaring to ignore. 

Perhaps I should buy in post dividends season or at least start preparing my shorts.
It seems like an overwhelming large majority of Asian companies have exceeded their fair value.

UPDATE: 27 April 2010
Jeremy Grantham from GMO fund who puts what I think in succinct words HERE 


Zhiyou said...

Any idea the volume and who is buying.

Dun really know which stock you are tracking so just throwing some ideas.

ThinkNotLeft said...

I am thinking that you may have trusted your own predictions of the market too much.

To avoid regret, you may wish to consider buying a portion of your desired stocks, say 10-20%, if the present price level lies within your margin of safety.

Personally, I am not certain if Asian companies are overvalued, given that the global economy is on the mend now, and the valuations may be discounting the recovery in earnings.

Finally, I do not place a lot of confidence in my views. In other words, I change my mind easily. Please do not take these comments too seriously, as things change over time.

Mervyn Teo said...

Hi to both,

For Zhiyou
Volume wise has been on a rise no doubt, but specifically, there is no disclosure on whos buying.

FOr ThinkNotLeft
Good point there, however I do not predict the market. I track down individual counters from a valuation perspective after I have analysed their operations. Overvalued hints at those I have tracked for some time.

I agree that I ought to start buying in lockstep but that will be minimal. I am comfortable holding cash even more than the 30% you are holding especially at times like this.

I still see a few good deals around, will update you guys further. Feel free to add me to your blog and give more comments, good to exchange learning and experiences.


Nice goings

Post a Comment