Thursday, April 1, 2010

CMBS delinquency, commercial loan defaults and real estate, corporate debt, maturity

Read a blog on CMBS delinquencies with very convincing numbers. Read it here.
A short summary: 
  • CMBS delinquency is still rising (in the US 700 billion market) 
  • Realpoint estimates delinquencies at over 6%, TREPP estimates it at over 10% (highest ever)
  • With extended "Stay hotel" loans and $ 3 billion Peter Cooper village / Stuyvesant Town (which is still current on payments at the moment), total unpaid loans to hit US 60-70 billion by mid 2010
  • delinquencies estimated to hit 8-9%  by then and 10-11% by end 2010
  • This is on top of record vacancies 

And for the corporate debt sector 
  • Standard and Poors has a report online on corporate debt maturity
  • As discussed with many of you, a bulk of the maturity will kick in at 2011/12 till 2015
  • Alot of firms especially non financials in US will have issues in that period 
  • Get the report here 
I will follow up with some thoughts on out credit driven economy in the next post tomorrow.



Theirs to much leverage in the financial system.

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