This week, research was done but was not able to hit any trigger.
Many of the counters on my buy list keep going up, obviously a nitro- charged bull acting.
I find it hard to buy when everyone else is, somehow the price action seems to prove otherwise.
The sovereign risks, China's property rush, impending corporate debt problems and a high likelihood of rising interest rate lingers in the backdrop, risks that are too glaring to ignore.
Perhaps I should buy in post dividends season or at least start preparing my shorts.
It seems like an overwhelming large majority of Asian companies have exceeded their fair value.
UPDATE: 27 April 2010
Jeremy Grantham from GMO fund who puts what I think in succinct words HERE
Friday, April 23, 2010
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4 comments:
Any idea the volume and who is buying.
Dun really know which stock you are tracking so just throwing some ideas.
I am thinking that you may have trusted your own predictions of the market too much.
To avoid regret, you may wish to consider buying a portion of your desired stocks, say 10-20%, if the present price level lies within your margin of safety.
Personally, I am not certain if Asian companies are overvalued, given that the global economy is on the mend now, and the valuations may be discounting the recovery in earnings.
Finally, I do not place a lot of confidence in my views. In other words, I change my mind easily. Please do not take these comments too seriously, as things change over time.
Hi to both,
For Zhiyou
Volume wise has been on a rise no doubt, but specifically, there is no disclosure on whos buying.
FOr ThinkNotLeft
Good point there, however I do not predict the market. I track down individual counters from a valuation perspective after I have analysed their operations. Overvalued hints at those I have tracked for some time.
I agree that I ought to start buying in lockstep but that will be minimal. I am comfortable holding cash even more than the 30% you are holding especially at times like this.
I still see a few good deals around, will update you guys further. Feel free to add me to your blog and give more comments, good to exchange learning and experiences.
Nice goings
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