Saturday, March 14, 2015
Work has been crazy and haven't had much time to go through everything on my plate but am still talking and discussing about companies and all so feel free to drop me a note if you have any you wish to discuss about.
|#||Name||Business||Listing||Ticker||+/- ex divs||+/- with divs|
|1||Roxy Pacific||Real Estate / Hotel||SGX||E8Z||-4.42%||8.77%|
|2||AEI Corp||Aluminium extrusions||SGX||A18||-13.24%||-9.56%|
|3||World Precsion||Precision Machinery||SGX||B49||-12.00%||-8.67%|
|5||Haw Par Corp||Conglomerate||SGX||H02||5.16%||7.62%|
|6||Real Estate Co||Real Estate||HKSE||3.97%||31.45%|
|Negative / Shorts|
|1||Olam||Agri - commodities||SGX||L28||-37.37%||-37.37%|
|2||Dapai Intl||Bag makers||SGX||FP1||56.00%||56.00%|
|3||Eratat lifestyle ltd||Sports goods||SGX||F08||54.55%||54.55%|
I exited World Precision in 2014 and added a real estate company in HK. Reason why I bought it was simple:
- Owner owns a significant majority and were aggressively buying back
- They own a significant portion of land in Macau and stand to benefit from the linkage of HK/Macau/Zhuhai bridges and the lack of hotels around that area
- The owners are astute real estate investors and operators and watches cost like a hawk
- The only risks are owners do a "take-under" or severe contraction in real estate market of which the latter is already happening but the firm remains resilient.
Olam is interesting. 2014 saw an acquisition from Singapore's sovereign wealth fund and hence the price increase. Im not vested in Olam since 2012 as its not cost efficient to maintain the short. Same goes for the other shorts, so the prices are for display. Eratat went bust despite having a huge cash hoard. See my previous posts here and here.
A quick post on 2013 results as I realized I have not posted it up.
2013 was interesting as I literally sat on things, there was no action on my part for 2013 at all.
Gains were mainly for Nanyang (management did a partial tender, of which I did not tender since it would result in odd lots and these have a discount in the HK market) as well as Haw Par. Haw Par gains were oddly not in line with its portfolio companies, namely UOB, UIC and UOL. Also exited Koon in 2013.
|#||Name||Business||Listing||Ticker||+/- ex divs||+/- with divs|
|1||Roxy Pacific||Real Estate / Hotel||SGX||E8Z||25.00%||28.68%|
|2||AEI Corp||Aluminium extrusions||SGX||A18||12.40%||20.66%|
|4||World Precsion||Precision Machinery||SGX||B49||-7.41%||17.28%|
|1||Olam||Agri - commodities||SGX||L28||8.93%||8.93%|
Saturday, September 20, 2014
SHC Capital (on sgx) is one counter I missed. I have been thumb sucking over the wide spreads and it cost me dearly. Zurich Re took it over at 70%+ premium. I'm no expert in the P&C and reinsurance field but this firm stood out like a nail.
Don't ask me about Alibaba, I have great respect for Jack Ma but that's about it (See http://vulcanpost.com/5407/billionaire-jack-ma-teaches-you-how-to-be-successful-in-life-and-business/). My views are limited on that.
For example, its always easier to sell a high dividend income yield fund than to say its going to be a opportunistic fund where I cannot guarantee no losses but its going to put money in whichever opportunity that makes the highest returns. People fear losses but more importantly, they dislike the fear of uncertainty and even if it means a false confidence of knowing something that may not be true or real.
Similarly, its the reason why there's credit ratings, its a form of a fixed buckets system. People are lazy to accept the fact that there's always the situation where its simply not well defined. Instead of a grid system where one just check the boxes or add scores from a pre-defined scoreboard for easy comparison sake. People are not willing to do the extra groundwork and admit outliers and anomalies. Adding to the complexity is the fact that it is always harder to go against the flow. How would one explain to his bosses that it does not fit in the grid system? What if the boss said it should go into a certain bucket, would one be able to challenge and make the boss look bad? If one runs a investment outfit, would one risk picking oddities and underperforming or to emulate an index and make small tweaks for a slight boost? Reason is that they rather ensure they have similar performance to the index with a smaller variance than to risk a year with mega losses.
Risk aversion plays a crucial part in how people think. Its also the reason why most people don't start up companies. They appreciate the outsized rewards upon success but are more focused on the extremely low probability. (I mean having a family and a stable career and others etc. are extraneous factors that also affect how one thinks here) When you lose money, it hits you much more than when you make them. When you enjoy that stable income and/or lifestyle, you start to forget that you are also in a system and when there are more factors introduced in a system, changes come fast, and in violent magnitudes. It is more pertinent that one stays in a upwind position where learning and not pay is the key priority.
Its the way people think and many times, people step too deep to realize they are in a hole. I remember a close friend of mine who said, "How can equities ever be safe, fixed income is the way to go. With added leverage, its a sure bet. why would anyone consider equities?" Classic case study example.
Its probably a time to relook at how these will pan out in the next few months again.
“Managing your career is like investing. The degree of difficulty does not count. So you can save yourself money and pain by getting on the right train.”
“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”
Sunday, June 22, 2014
As many of you know, I'm working on a project that's tech oriented. Its partly because what I am trying to solve is a big problem I face everyday and partly because I felt theres no better time to solve this with the lever of technology and information and platform freedom. Its still ongoing and I am fumbling with the mountain of things to clear and sort and worrying about whether theres a true problem, whether the problem is a one single mega pain or a collection of big and mostly small pains which is harder to solve.
The key (which I learnt) was to spot problems that are too painful to be ignored, come up with a rough, simple product that solves most of it and continuously listen to user feedback and iterate if it fails. The belief that solving a very important problem and getting users crazy over your solution before thinking about revenue models is also something very new to me. There were also talks about growth hacking, making things go viral and then Whatsapp just disproved it with no PR, no marketing, by charging people and the user stats still hit through the roof, because of a great product that users loved. The interesting thing was things are viewed differently, very dynamic, very forward looking and a constant stage of experiments. Reminds me of the saying: "Focus on where the puck will go, rather than where it was". Its a very different world from where I came from which admittedly is very backward looking for most of the practitioners, and I can better appreciate how Buffett, Munger start to look at things. Steve Jobs also hinted that innnovation and creativity is all about doing what you love (ensures you go through lots of crap), connecting the dots between far flung concepts (aka latticework mental model as per Charlie Munger) and of course think big (not in the ambition sense but more like macro level) to mix and match stuff to see what works and not.
I actually picked up programming to understand how it all works and understand what and how engineers or programmers as some call, work on problems and I must say its all a very cool process. Ive also burnt many weekday nights and weekends learning it (still learning it), my last was trying to do "pushes" via a command prompt which is really a basic concept of making changes on your PC and pushing it to the cloud servers in layman terms. Its basic but I took forever to learn it, its a unique field and incredibly powerful. You realize that you can actually create things that makes makes a difference, makes life easier, basic ones like getting bus timings, movie schedules etc. and they have serious big scale applications. I mean I would still take a few weeks or months to build one but I have seen people doing it in a few days.
There is in fact a much deeper impact to me. Suddenly it becomes clearer what tech or some startup companies were doing. Why Facebook bought Whatsapp or Occulus, why Twitter could do a billion range IPO despite its financials (Not that I totally agree with the valuations) but you have a much panned out view of the landscape. Why is Swipe, VMware and Salesforce (I know there was a recent short call on it) so popular etc? Why is Tesla so different? Are they crazy to build a hyper loop or make humans do interstellar travel like weekend trips. We aren't really talking about singularity here but you can start to see how things and technology converge and why people start to move towards the cloud, towards privacy secured products and services like Snapchat and more importantly towards mobile etc. I recommend reading this slide by Mary Meeker of KPCB.
More importantly, the actual process of trying to start up something is immensely gratifying, and I have not even came up with a product yet. The act of doing it, I have already learnt so much from it. Crafting experiments to test for product demand and relevance, understanding the difference between whats a want and a need, whether to listen to your customers or regard them as users who dont know what they want. Also understanding whats the industry landscape, categorizing product types and building features. I enjoy reading posts from a few people in the industry, from the big hitters like Paul Graham to lesser known ones like Slava who runs RethinkDB. For PG, I particularly like "Do things that dont scale", "Ambitious startup ideas", "How to get startup ideas", "Schlep Blindness" and "Startups in 13 Sentences".
The fact that startups are the mix of very intelligent people on the forefront of technology and the desire to break things make for some very interesting combination and results.
On the other hand, my portfolio has little changes except for a HK listed real estate company which I invested into. I went in at a high, there's some massive price movements even though volume and free float is very low. Value remains and likely a minimum 2 bagger. There seems little thats reasonably priced for me though at the moment. Fed's decision to cut back on bond buyback also had some real impact, rates are moving up fast and Chinese companies borrowing in 2014 is staggering. Its US$14 trillion, even more than US companies now. China corporates also will make up over half of total global corporate borrowing needs over 5 year period (i.e half of US$60 trillion up to 2018) Read here for more info. A quarter to a third is financed by shadow banking. And no surprises for guessing its steel and real estate that dominates. And foreign reserves that China has is US$4 trillion. Uh oh...
Also favorite highlight, Bumi Resources tipping on the default edge, like again... HERE.
Again, appreciate any exchange if ideas and/or comments.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
- Does Indofood taking over CMZ mean they are necessarily right and Glaucus is wrong?
- Does taking majority take (30+%) mean Indofood has absolutely done their work and are right?
- If you bought Zhengzhou Siwei Mechanical and Electrical Co like how Caterpillar Co done their work, congratulations, you have just managed to make -84% returns within a few months. Many other examples like China Agritech and China Biotics and the list goes on, and on and on.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Seems like a themed party that didnt work out.
The chase for yields continues as free money drops from the sky. Everyone is massively printing money which has literally thrown the global economy is disarray, losing its much needed equilibrium for an actual recovery to set in.
Post Fraser & Neave bidding war saga, it seems the play on inflation was right. It remains that globally, the scenario where an ever increasing pool of capital is chasing a limited set of assets and options.
Some continued signs of the staggering chase includes:
- US$1.1B acquisition of "Tumblr", a microblogging and social network site which in the past 7 years has recognized close to or 0 revenues. (Nice!)
- "Twitter" was last valued at US$1B, and investors were quoting on its fast growth in revenues, estimated to hit an "eye popping" US$1B. (What about earnings? to speak the least)
- "Oxley Holdings", a Singapore based residential real estate development company setting up a S$300M MTN Programme and issuing S$150M 4 year unsecured at barely over 5.10% (Have fun reading their financials)
- "Croesus Japan REIT IPO popped up 20% on IPO day, with yields of over 8%. (The BOJ Put at work! Mind you, the so called shopping malls are suburban "Wal-Mart" type of malls)
- India Tata Communications/Steel/Auto each raised debt funding in Asian markets despite their financials. Subsequently they raised the money and Tata Steel wrote down assets by US$1.6B within a coincidentally close date after the fund raising. (Check the financials)
- The US$23B "Heinz" acquisition carried a valuation tag of over 14x trailing EBITDA while peers are 10-11x. Note Buffett is this case is the financier, not the acquirer.
- Claims of China's hyper-inflated trade surplus with on the ground testimonials! See the article courtesy of Bloomberg HERE (I wonder what goods people trade this days with that sort of quantum)
- In the 2011-2012, we also saw US$1B acquisition of photo sharing site, "Instagram", game acquisitions such as the US$200M acquisition of "Draw Something", a mobile game application and Hewlett Packard (HP)'s US$11B acquisition of software provider, "Autonomy Inc".
- Asian equities are also enjoying high valuations. Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia etc are having across the board price to book of 2.6-3x which may be anecdotal but sure is a record event.
It may be all happy and rosy with rising asset prices. However the world is usually force-neutral. When theres a cause, theres an effect. Costs are creeping up (technically not true, they are silently moving up aggressively) and it seems that costs are likely to rise exponentially more than sales can grow.
This is far more true when Asia is known to not be a product/service leader and naturally with low levels of automation and/or innovative internal processes. Further, if one would assume a higher level of automation or better internal process, dont forget the capex to implement it, which is of course is much higher upfront now. The underlying value of an enterprise (of which price is partly based on), is the end result of these interactions. For sure, when you cannot successfully maintain a low cost level commensurate with a higher sales level to generate profits, a manager would cut the next most obvious and immediate cost, the raw materials or inputs. That translates to a lower commodity price level which we have witnessed and certain to persist.
As I write this on a related note, I regretfully read that theres 3 new suicide cases at Foxconn plants in China.
It is tough to fight the tide, and it sure looks like its getting stronger.
Perhaps I should just get a drink and sit back for a while.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
I wrote sometime back on why I disagree on Gold being a good investment or so called inflation hedge. Had a lot (and I mean "A Lot!") of discussions or you may call it arguments on this topic and many have slammed me and said I will be the biggest fool in the market for not buying Gold. Reasons given ranged from solid inflation adjusted price appreciation, tight supply (cant be mined specifically on its own, its more of a by product) to it was the value anchor for currency during "Bretton Woods" time etc. To me, it is clear why Gold may not necessarily be a good investment. A overemphasis on inflation adjusted data may be misleading given the lack of understanding on data integrity going back to 1800s and blind faith on charts. Besides Indians who use it massively for their dowry, I cant really fathom what other uses there can be apart from being highly expensive catalysts or electrical conductors. With a limited demand, a tight supply doesnt stand strong as an argument. Last but not least, the value of a currency depends on various factors, including economic strength, investments, currency supply/ demand which are interrelated. However Gold is merely a hot potato which passes around, with each guessing the price of it based on what others guessed.
Given the recent hammering on Gold (no Im tempted to pick up any), I found it rather funny as I read back the comments of one of the global investors whom investment letters I read regularly. Hes Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, please dont mind me using your quote.
Secondly, theres also the focus on equities this year to date which I have mentioned in a 2012 post. As mentioned, the larger money supply will continue to hit the markets and the end result will be across the board inflation, not only in the fish and apples we buy but also the stocks and company values. Those who claim stocks will crash might be a little early to be honest. I don't deny valuations are not getting cheap but it does not warrant a doomsday expectation, especially on the back of economic recovery (though it is not clear if its sustainable in the long run). With such rising levels, the likelihood of rates or in some countries implied rates will creep up. What this means is whatever loans you have that is floating rate will likely rise. From an investor's perspective, it means bonds with low yields will get steamrolled so beware of picking up 1) quality fixed income with low yields or 2) crappy fixed income with high yields that is effectively no yield coupled with a sub par principal at the end of maturity. If you bought a perpetual, well hope that the company is of quality name then.
Last but not least, if there's any reader/s out there who can help with the following, drop me a note.
1) Capital seeders/ investors/ multi manager office for an investment partnership (ideally someone/team that supports fundamental investing across the capital structure on a global basis), and
2) High net worth or institutional investors for 2 coal mezzanine deals in Asia Pacific, one of which is a listed company. The advisory team supporting it is trustworthy and audited results/ JORC reports are available on demand.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
2012 has been a pretty interesting year.
Despite the inactivity here, the same cannot be said of the investments made. I will firstly highlight the long performance and will later touch on the short ones, which has been great but of lesser significance since I have been having a lot of issues with the cost and execution of the ideas. So it shall be more of an educational display.
I'll do this manually as Google Spreadsheets is still pretty much a malfunctioning tool.
Long positions 2012
No. Name Returns ex dividends Dividends Returns with dividends/ Others
- Nanyang Holdings + 38.2% HK0.5/sh + 40.8%
- Haw Par + 27.5% SG 0.2/sh + 31.3%
- Roxy Pacific +113.3% SG 0.0067/sh +119.9% Bonus of 1 for 2
- World Precision - 7.0% SG 0.027/sh - 0.7%
- AEI + 10.0% SG 0.01/sh + 19.0%
- Koon - 32.9% SG 0.01/sh - 29.5% Rights 3 for 5@$0.19/sh
- Olam + 32.7% SG 0.04/sh + 31.0% Rights+warrants+bonds
- Cacola +14.3% - + 14.3%
- Dapai +58.8% - + 58.8%
Sunday, December 2, 2012
- Capex/acquisition heavy with poor assets
- Crown flour mill (0.9% thin margin, cash burn)
- S$571M less investments that were annnounced
- S$996.2M of capex were not attributable over the last 4 years
- 62.5% of non cash gains from negative good will from revaluations (SK Foods, tt Timber)
- Rest from biological gains (I.e you dont sell the trees but change your estimate of its values)
- Non cash accounting gains account for 37.9% of PAT from 2010 to 2012
- Sept 2012, S$3.75B of debt due in 12 months despite S$1.38B in cash
- Firm consumed S$2.5B in operating cash flowfrom FY2009 to 1Q2013
- Significant margin account restatements, one over S$1B in 2008
- Significant impact of derivatives revaluation on profits (sensitivity up from S$3.8M to S$12M from 2011 to 2012 despite fall in value of derivatives)
- Undisclosed account changes (page 35-41 of Muddys report)
- Low rate of project and investment returns
- Nigeria export incentives and grant income flows to Olam but is not sustainable
- Refinancing quantum of S$4.6B over next 4Qs
- FY 2012 has only 3 weeks of operating cash, over S$600M of cash out of S$1.1B are from withdrawals of broker margins. S$445.7M cash are from overdrafts at over 20%
- Recent quarters saw a withdrawal of cash from margin accounts and mentioned no need to maintain the account as they net off positions daily
- Mentioned Olam was defensive, Olam advised Muddy to go long and work with firm. Muddy declined in a abrasive manner
- Muddy offered to pay for a debt rating on Olam
- Olam 45 page rebuttal HERE
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Sincere apologies that I have been largely away and unable to write more.
2012 largely has been fairly interesting, apart from the usual problems "still" plaguing in Europe (Spain and Greece) again. It is also interesting to note several large Japanese corporates are suffering from the stronger Yen, weakening domestic corporates and of course holding of the relevant companies' stock (ex. Sharp, Panasonic) especially the financial institutions. Link of news from Bloomberg HERE
More importantly, I was glad to know someone has similar findings to what I wrote about OLAM previously HERE. Stock has also fallen some 12 % in 2012 YTD alone.
The single most interesting corporate action in Asia involving F&N also took a new twist with OUE coming into play with well known funds like Farallon coming into the bid which imho is playing a financing role. This highlights the scarcity of assets as well as the silent expansion of global capital largely resulting from quantitative easing which in turn results in the inflation of prices.
Other updates as follows:
- Roxy Pacific
- recent dividend policy of paying out min 50% of net operating profit of the hotel business which translates to about $6 to 10m per annum. Link HERE
- Mgmt also upped their capital in the hotel business
- 3Q revenue declined vs 2011 and is above 2009 levels, mainly due to 2011 benefiting from a large revaluation gain of $9.7m from Kovan Centre
- Grand Mecure is now worth some $438 M
- Cash of $240M, debt of $433M, NAV $230M (pre-adjusted). With the hotel its $612M
- Property development has some $844M of sales to be recognised, with $112M recognised
- Hotel occupancy came down from 94 to 92%, while Revpar is up about 6% to $200. Its the star performer for 9M2012 thus far
- Good to note that since the last call, the firm is up some 79% from post split cost of $0.29 to $0.52 currently (i.e market value of $491M)
- I still hold my ground that this is a rather solid firm which has been misunderstood to be a pharma/ leisure company but really in essence an investment holding co
- Results are up significantly but do not take it to heart since 2011 9M results were marred by a exceptional loss of $13.4M
- Firm has $2.3B in assets and only $0.1B in total liabilities. Out of $2.3B, $1.78B is in AFS financial assets (i.e stocks, bonds) and $0.14B in cash and liquid deposits.
- Market values this firm as $1.4B currently
- Lastly, it helps to note Mr. Wee (both Jr and Sr) are constantly buying back.
- Exposed to the slow down faced in China. However things are picking up from data signs of PMI and all. Will continue to update this shortly.
- Firm recently announced their plans to move into Malaysia property development supported by a rights issue.
- That in my opinion is not their niche and Im still trying to get my hands around it.
- The application date is 26 Nov 2012 so please take note.
- No significant action on this front except that the recent HK government goals to revamp the industrial area in Kowloon which is helping to add value to many companies holding plots of land in that area, among which Nanyang is one of them.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
1) Kirin bought a passive stake in F&N from Temasek in mid 2010
2) ThaiBev offers S$2.78B/ US$2.2B for 22% of F&N (S$8.88 per share, 12% premium to S$7.96 per share) while TCC will fork up S$0.9202B for 8.6% of APB (S$45 per share, 18% premium to S$38.10 per share price on 19 Jul 2012).
3) Both stakes are acquired from OCBC, Great Eastern and Lee Rubber Group financed with bridge loan from HSBC, SCB and SMBC. Total S$3.7B paid for 15.728% of APB
4) Heineken came in, unhappy with the current state of the JV (especially on Kirin buying F&N from Temasek) and is buying APB whole for S$50 per share (S$ 5 more than ThaiBev's bid). This works out to be S$5.1B/US$ 4.1B for F&N's stake in APB and values S$7.5B/ US$6B for the entire APB stake that Heineken does not already own
5) Citigroup and Credit Suisse are advising Heineken, while HSBC and Morgan Stanley advised ThaiBev. F&N hired Goldman Sachs
Why the acquisition?
From Heineken's 2011 annuals, Vietnam was its 2nd-largest market in Asia. Asia beer volume growth was also favorable, evident from Heineken's 6.2% growth in 2011 vs. 0.2% in Western Europe. Western Europe counts for 35% of Heineken's operating profit vs. 8% for AB InBev and 1% for SABMiller (quoted by Sanford Bernstein), and Asia under 7%. Heineken bought Mexico’s Femsa in 2010 for US$8B and has the smallest emerging market presence out of the top 3. ThaiBev on the other hand has a loss making beer division while its spirits business is thriving.
Kirin acquired Brazil’s Schincariol for US$2.57B in August 2011. It also paid US$386M for Australia's Little World Beverages in June 2012. Kirin bought out the stake it did not already own in Australia’s Lion Nathan. in 2009 for US$2.5B, Australia’s then 2nd-biggest brewer by market share after Foster’s Group.
- Heneiken successfully bids for APB - (high)
- ThaiBev bids higher for APB - (low to mid) since they have poorer financials but seem needy of a profitable brand and network.
- ThaiBev bids higher for F&N - (mid to high) expressed interest in real estate and F&B
- Kirin bids higher - (low to mid) low stake and needs additional 15% for a general offer
- Kirin with another party (likely ThaiBev) to block bids - (low to mid) as Kirin holds c.10% and ThaiBev holds c.15% of APB
- Third party comes in with the higher bid - remote given the high valuations
- Deal falls through, no one buys anything - almost 0 probability
-14 Aug 2012 (Update)
F&N approved Heineken's US$6.35B offer for shares held by F&N and APB's minority shareholders, F&N's board also agreed not to engage in talks or accept other offers for its interests in APB. Heineken also attached a S$55.9M break fee on its offer and set a 15 Dec deadline (120 days). Heineken announced an offer of S$53 per share (S$5.4b/S$4.3B) for APB and additional S$0.163 for non-APB assets held by APIPL. Includes public market purchases.
- 13 Sept 2012 (Update)
ThaiBev and TCC collectively owns 30.36% and offers to buy out entire F&N at S$ 8.88 per share, a US$7.2B cash offer. The consortium are advised by Morgan Stanley, DBS and UOB, offer is 2 weeks before shareholder vote on Heineken's offer for APB. The group mentioned they will not incur additional debt for the purchase.
- 25 Sept 2012 (Update)
Heineken completed purchase of 8.6% stake held by Kindest Place. ThaiBev and TCC also mentioned agree to vote for sale of F&N's stake in APB to Heineken.
- 28 Sept 2012 (Update)
F&N's capital reduction plans fell through with 54.3% voted for, well below the 75% needed due to the Thai consortium voting against it. The other 94% of the F&N holders voted for the capital reduction. APB's S$7.9B/ US$ 6.4B sale to Heineken was formalised. Kirin is also expected to sell its 15% stake in F&N to the ThaiBev/TCC consortium.
- 10 Oct 2012 (Update)
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Straits Times, Business Times and various public news sources.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
"Opportunities don't come to people who don't take absolute risk, who don't put away two or three or four years of their life. They don't come to you with a wife and kids in the suburbs. You can't be successful unless you accumulate a little bit, and the only way to accumulate is to live on nothing."
- Richard John Siemens
"Investing can be very lonely, especially if you are a contrarian. You have to have a point of view, to have a belief and see something that other people don't. A lot of times you see something that other people don't, there's nothing there and there are other times when there's something there and the question is whether is it worth to invest your time and money in it.
- Eddie Lampert (Richard Rainwater Legacy)
My thoughts are:
So true yet so hard for people to accept logical approaches that goes against the grain of human psychology.