Monday, December 13, 2010

Gallant Ventures or Gallant Bubble

Recently theres a renewed hype over Gallant ventures and the stock flew 41.5% + 13+% over 2 weeks, from S$0.255 to S$0.415 now. I was thinking, wow thats a pretty good return and I started to wonder why I did not buy that counter. Then I went to view the reason - a research report done on it and started to see if it indeed justifies the run up.

To cut the long story short, Gallant ventures basically is a firm co-owned by Sembcorp Industries, Salim Group (Indonesia) and JTC of Singapore. The firm owns about 18,400 Ha of land in Bintan and Batam (mainly Bintan). The story goes that now the firm started to sell land at prices of S$90-300 psm, average of S$110 psm, also backed by a couple of recent transactions. The prime is Lagoi Bay and neigbouring land surrounding the Northwest Jetty. Gallant is currently building out the Lagoi area and so has residential and other investors flocking in to buy a piece of the land around the area.

So key businesses are:
  1. 18,400 Ha of Bintan land - "to sell, develop etc" (1 Ha = 10,000 sm)
  2. Provides utilities (electricity,water and communications), resorts and ferry services to the island
  3. Bought a 29% stake in a South Kalimantan Iron ore producer (Silo) for S$ 14 million - "miner"
  4. Bought a 49% stake in a Shanghai land for S$288 million (81,326 sm) - "building condos"
I went to do a fast calculation and this is what I got:

The "target price" was around $0.70 per share if I remembered correctly.
No disputes on utilities, mining businesses since the assumptions were fairly reasonable.

Then I noted the following :
  1. Cash and debt were not accounted for entirely
  2. I played around the Shanghai property figures and the above is the maximum I got and it represents almost a 71.6% return on investment for Gallant (cost was S$288mn + S$114mn in development cost). (Note: I was really optimistic on the figures). It has the potential to be much lower.
  3. Resorts and Industrial parks should be accounted as a loss, but I took it as 0. I dont understand how can one assume an entity loss making now, to be making good profits in future when there are more future visitors. The businesses are not related (industrial parks vs tourists) and secondly the resorts are loss making now when you have 400,000 visitors a year. How is it going to change in future with expected a million visitors in 2015 with even MORE resorts?
  4. The calculation above also supposes that empty land (be it industrial or for residential/hotels/resorts) are taken at S$ 1 psm. This is really wild land little or no roads, no pipes, no infrastructure no nothing. A bulk of them are on the other side (East, North eastern) of the island without ferry access. 
    • Assuming Lagoi Bay is worth S$30 psm, it comes up to about S$ 451.3 million. S$110 psm transaction price is for undeveloped land near beach front
    • Landbank 1 is the area around Lagoi Bay and I put it as S$3 psm with expanding roads and infrastructure
  5. Note that I did not use NPVs and discounted figures will yield lower figures
Conclusion of the story: 
The numbers of the $0.70 per share value seems a tad too high, price wise at the former S$0.250-0.270 range is reasonably attractive. My assumptions are optimistic (in my opinion very!), I did not use NPVs, no efficiency discount for Lagoi Bay land, assuming 100% take up of the shanghai property (which is quite a bubble now) and of cos the 100% smooth running of the Indonesia mines. There are many further things not accounted for including development costs. Capital expenditure for the utilities part amounted to S$300+ million alone. While developing resorts and tourists area may not need that much, it sure needs at least 20-30% of that amount or (S$60 - 90million) to build extension roads, expand telco towers and reach, building pipes for portable water etc for a similar area (Development costs is around S$ 1000-1700 psm) . The story does not hold up well and is too good to be true. And oh, did I also mention that the firm has quite a bit of debt on their books?

PS: I welcome any discussion on this, this post just reflects my thoughts and may or may not be right/accurate. Currently Gallant Venture is trading at S$0.415. The only thing for sure is I spent 3 hours on this.

Disclaimer: The author does not have a position in the above counter be it long or short. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell the stock.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

December updates

Dear readers,
I have some important ideas on hand, did not realize such undervalued counters are still available currently, guess its the work or lack of work thereof that allows more time to dig deeper. I will be on a company visit on one of the firms and will update shortly on my findings.
Stay tuned.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Some good quotes

November proved to be an exciting month with little investing going on.
I came across this prose which i thought accurately reflected my current situation. This was quoted by Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors and was authored by Mr. William Ward. 

Coincidently, I too believe firmly in his other quote: "The more I try, the luckier I get". 
Failures are necessary for one to grow from the mistakes and learn to live with it.

Before you speak, listen.
Before you write, think.
Before you spend, earn.
Before you invest, investigate.
Before you criticize, wait.
Before you pray, forgive.
Before you quit, try.
Before you retire, save.
Before you die, give.

I am finally done with my project soon, I will continue to post more ideas in the coming days or weeks.
This will be followed by the end of year performance summary and breakdown.

Saturday, November 6, 2010


Dear all,

My sincere apologies for the long period of silence. It has been a trying year for me. I got work as a project based consultant and the busy (and largely erratic) work schedule resulted in less time for investments. In my opinion, if I do not have time to give quality analysis and recommendations not only for myself, but also for readers and investors alike: I will refrain from writing. This is a way to avoid pushing the limits of multi tasking.

I will continue to write as it is therapeutic process for me to invest, think and write and thank you for all your encouragements. I am glad that my past posts have contributed to your wars against poverty. Please do keep your emails and stock or any other investment views/suggestions (if any) coming in.

While I was certainly delighted that my holdings all rose in value, it does not correspondingly reflect a rise in firms' performance and their operating matrices. Most firms in the broad consumption theme have largely recovered from their earnings, giving rise to the 100-200% jump in earnings (excluding the Commodities and Marine giants, likes of Keppel and Sembmarine etc which are a different animal on that front). On closer look, many firms' earnings are normalizing, for example Johnson n Johnson, GE, Nestle, Samsung, Hon hai, Mitsubishi etc. BYD and Chalco were extreme examples though.

The fact that large caps are laggards versus the small caps (even in Asia) also shows the optimism (or rather overoptimism) in investors. The effect of QE2 will also further bring a support (although a highly unstable one) to equities vis-a-vis credit.

The focus will still be on undervalued counters and to maximize compounded returns (of which I have not fared too well this year) despite the macro outlook. I bring you my write up on AEI corp written a few months back before its dividend payout as well as the follow up write up. As mentioned, I have a couple of ideas in mind however it is not attractive from a price point perspective. 
  1. Background 
    • Only Aluminium extrusion firm with a manufacturing base in Singapore 
    • Products include 
      • Precision - electronics, clean room and automation equipment (80-90% of sales)
      • Infrastructure - public works, interior designs, signages and advertisement panels (10%)
  2. Financials (From 2002 to 2009) 
    • 261.196 mil shares * S$0.21 = mkt cap S$54.85 mil
    • Equity grew at CAGR of under 12% for 7 years (ex dividend) (not fantastic but not bad either)
    • ROE at least 10% for most years except 2007 (6.9%) and 2004 (8.7%) despite 0 leverage
    • A loss of S$5.78 mil in 2008, the only down year since 2002 due to:
        • skyrocketing aluminium prices
        • S$ 4 mil impairment of convertibles in a China JV for Aluminium products
  3. Why buy 
    • Only firm with facilities in Singapore, allows for fast turnaround and altering of prototypes
    • Experience and network in Singapore (KK hospital, NUS, SIA building, Great world city, Shangri La Sentosa, Clark Quay MRT and Sg-Msia Johor link) 
    • Strong financials with real recurring owner's earnings and current price implies a dividend yield of over 13% for 2009. Firm is able to support this for another 4+ years without gearing up.
  4. Risks 
    • Spike in LME aluminium prices (considerable current risk)
    • Slump in electronics and SG construction orders (unlikely since strong recovery in 2Q09)
    • Firm does not hedge its USD exposure (Electronics)
  5. Expectations 
    • 261.196 mil shares * S$0.165 per share = mkt cap S$43.097 mil
    • Planned capex in extrusion plan to cost S$ 6 mil 
      • End of yr and equivalents around S$ 22-25 mil (53% of mkt cap)
    • This excludes:
      • S$3 mil convertible loan given to An Yang (Well Global) (recovered)
      • US3 mil or S$3.513 mil in convertible loan to M2B of $6.513 (approx $6 mil). 
      • M2B loan is fully guaranteed with assets worth S$200mil, far above loan amount and 200above current market cap even if is discounted by half.
    • I would expect it to trade 
      • With FY09 profit at $8.54 mil, its around 5x PER
      • Lowest price point will be 4x PER (only S chips trade below that), downside of 18%+
      • Conservatively at 7-8 x 2009 PER, or S$ 59 - 68 mil, or S$0.22 - 0.26, 36-57% upside

Post August 2010 - What has changed?
  • I realized cash for this firm is largely irrelevant, however it remains a statistical play rather than a business operations play (so do not expect outsized returns)
  • Strong earning base (although volatile) and the asset coverage is much more crucial
  • Judging current conditions, of the 3 risks, seems that only #1 is likely but thats offset by a weak USD
  • With aggressive buybacks, shares are at 256.39 mil x S$0.155 = S$39.7mil mkt cap (4-5x PER)
  • The firm had its scare as 1H earnings plunged to a loss, however as mentioned MTM swings (S$4.1mil for the firm) should not affect judgement unless it is highly probable
  • Without the MTM losses, (which the firm reversed recently), yoy 1H 2010 earnings grew 16% or so
  • Firm still has the massive M2B loan, strong financials, dominant operating position and a management with an eye for cheap stocks

Looking to add more whenever possible
If the management should happen to read this, I will be happy to drop by your office for a chat

Disclaimer: Author owns shares in AEI Corp

Monday, September 13, 2010

Fast September update

It is funny how the markets are rising not because firms outperform expectation but rather did not do as bad as expected. China data seems too good to be true, despite the huge dangling municipal loans for massive infrastructure expansion .

Todays newspaper article on the new China's generation "P" or plastic people - to define a new generation of young workforce who work like robots routinely and  have no ideals or goals in life. Well, coupled with low wages and a very skewed gender ratio, wide rich poor gap and not to mention vast lands subjected to natural destruction will prove to be a headache for the nation.

Lastly, my apologies for the skimpy updates, I had some technical glitches with a failed hardware as well as also some miscellaneous urgent matters to attend to. I have some ideas on hand and will write promptly if they are good.

I still believe that markets are overvalued to a certain extent. The main core problems still exist in PIIGS. So is the massive leverage and unemployment issue in US. Now Japan is also under watch for the huge pension claims, rising Yen and dilemma of whether to apply a loose monetory policy. China is again trying to cool the market with measures to curb the residential property funding - with lock in of pre development sales cash in escrow. What a macro market it has been, And the debate between inflation and deflation. I dont see why both cannot happen at the same time. Just look at Japan.

Have a good week ahead.


Thursday, August 26, 2010

Hi-P (H17 SP)

A good friend of mine asked me to look at this firm, which I did and heres my thoughts.
I wont write full on this firm - read on for details.
  • Firm manufactures plastic moulds for electronic products
  • Firm has been uphill due to consistent share buybacks 
  • About 863 million shares out at $0.835 each = mkt cap S$720 million
  • Debt levels are low with S$200 m+ in cash (thats why buybacks)
  • Firm did not recover contrary to what they wrote. "recovery was 1Q to 2Q 2010, -ve to +ve
    • but look at 1Q 2010 vs 09 and 2Q 2010 vs 09, both down.
    • overall YTD is a loss vs a gain in 09
  • Firm seems to be bleeding sales while fixed costs (almost all cost) remains similar 
    • This is amidst dipping pricing (note the margins)
  • Conclusion?
    • Not something I want to go into - Don't understand the rally in it.

    Thursday, August 5, 2010

    Roxy Pacific, E8Z.SI, ROXY.SP and general market (UPDATES)

    My apologies for the recent inactivity, heres updates for Roxy. 
    I am also looking at one other counter which I will reveal and provide analysis for shortly.
    Markets are weirdly buoyant despite poor operating numbers and industry statistics amidst the backdrop of European crisis and and of further possible tightening in China. The upward moving trend is making it hard for me to buy since its like averaging up - does not make sense. Further, dips are shallow and short.

    I neither a rocket scientist nor an expert economist with predictive ability so double dip or not - I do not know. There have been talks that rate hikes in China are unlikely but that does not imply there will not be monetary actions. I guess the only thing that can bring markets down is news of a fresh wave of tightening measures coupled with poor economic data.  There remains much structural issues unsolved in both US, Europe, China and even Japan that may pose greater problems which I will talk about soon. One of them is the large amount of bad loans stashed away and not surfacing due to low borrowing costs or innovative financing vehicles. (Note that both changes in rates and credit liquidity are crucial)

    It does seem that theres some form of reflexivity now in the markets, people buying up due to large liquidity so much so people are starting to think that there may be a chance of a bull in between. While if that is true, it is still in the building up stage. If that turns out to be fake, it may act otherwise, with poor economics resulting in falling asset values. With a lower collateral unable to meet the LTVs, debts once again, requires more refinancing and payments and less entities willing to put up credit. People liquidate to refinance, pulling down other asset markets and more selling ensues as people switch from slightly bullish to " I knew it was a bear all along". 

    Anyway, heres Roxy's short update.

    • 2Q revenue up 27%, bottom line up 37%
    • Cash and equivalent at $116.9m and debt at $270m (refer to previous update on why debt is not high)
    • Lately Accor sold the 538 room Ibis hotel at bencoolen for $200m (3stars) or $374k / room so that is pretty much in line with Roxy's grand mecure hotel (4stars) which is also managed by Accor
    • Still a far cry from the $400k/room levels for other similar quality names
    • The quality and land may also mean upwards of $200m for Grand Mecure is very reasonable
    • Hotel room AOR and ARR stable (refer to link below)
    • 162 Haig and Straits residences had good launches and sales (100% and 77% sold) wow!
    • Progress billings of $227.5m to be recognized from 3Q10 to 2012
    • Group intends to launch another 2 projects in 2H 2010 out of the current 7 land parcels
      • I saw the houses, pretty neat stuff. I would buy one if I could
    • Security price is up from $ 0.29 to currently $0.32-33, mkt cap of $203 - 210m 
    • Remember that hotel if revalued adds another $160m or so to the equity. So thats 70+% upside
    See here for their 2Q presentation.$file/Roxy_Ann_Q2FY2010_Presentation.pdf

    Disclaimer: The writer is vested in this counter 

    Thursday, July 15, 2010

    Javelin Pharmaceutical (JAV US) AMEX - Part 2

    Well the lengthy part 1 was worth it, the write up made the case much easier to read.
    On 1 July 2010, option #3 of the 4 available option (with highest probability) occurred.
    At entry of US$1.42, the exit of US$2.20 offers an upside of 54.9% in over 2 weeks.

    Hope you guys learnt as much as I did, I will strive to write more on ideas from other markets apart from Singapore which I feel has a current dearth of excellent ideas. Do feel free to write in wherever you are on the globe to exchange and discuss ideas.

    Thanks and happy investing.

    Thursday, July 1, 2010

    Parkway Takeover Saga

    Battle between Fortis Healthcare (India) and Kazanah (Malaysia)
    Sorry for the late reply, I have not been honestly keeping track on this since its overpriced deal. 
    But now it is interesting to relook now that some situations have unfold.


    • Parkway is Asia's largest healthcare operator with 16 hosiptals and 3400 beds in Asia
    • 60% of revenue is derived from Singapore operations
    • Parkway also owns 31% of Pantai (Khazanah and Parkway JV) which has 2 Malaysian healthcare concessions. This 31% was subsequently took private and swapped with 40% stake in Pantai Irama which bought Pantai private. Khazanah than owns 60% of the end parent entity, Pantai Irama
    • Parkway also owns 35.4% of parkway Life REIT
    • 11 March, Fortis bought 23.9% stake in Parkway Holdings at S$3.56/sh for S$959.4 mn from TPG's exit
    • Fortis owns 25.4% currently and Khazanah owned 23%
    • May 27, Kazanah offered S$1.18 bn (US$ 835 mn) or S$3.78/sh with 25% premium to double its stake to 51.5% (partial offer)
    • Parkway’s shares surge 23% to S$3.71 (highest since Nov. 5, 2007)
    • Fortis shares rose 0.4% to 140.45 rupees
    • Fortis ups stake from 23.9 to 25.29% from March to May 2010
    • 9 June, Fortis plans to raise 27.5 bn rupees (US $ 585 mn)
    • Fortis’ board approved increased borrowing limit to 60 bn rupees (US$ 1.27 bn), including selling 22.35mn preferred shares including a 7% stake of 3.8 bn rupees to GIC (Govt of Singapore invest corp) 
    • Parkway climbs 1.6% to S$3.83 and Fortis down 0.7% to 139.5 rupees
    • 18 June, Reliance reportedly eyeing 26% stake in Fortis (Rumour)
    • Fortis needs to submit general offer for Parkway by July 30
    • 30 July Fortis submits general offer of S$3.80 /sh general offer for all shares
    • Other regional competitors include Pantai, Apollo Hospital and IMU health Sdn Bhd
    • From the looks of it, Fortis can raise estimated 87.5bn rupees or S$ 2.63bn
    • Malaysia is the crown jewel of Parkway's overseas operations but Pantai Irama remains the key to unlocking shareholder value and can be a stumbling block to Fortis 
    • Singapore takeover rules do not allow Fortis to make a partial general offer for Parkway shares as it (Fortis) had acquired shares in the target company within the last six months
    • That would cost Fortis some S$3.4bil (US$2.4bil) to buy out all the remaining shares in Parkway that it does not own
    • Expected counter offer at 5-6% premium at most (given the limited fund raising from Fortis), implying at best S$4/sh bid price

    Lion Asia Pac (LAP SP) SGX - part 2

    Continuation from part 1, firm sold its Chinese automobile business and a $0.15 per share dividend or (S$ 60.8mn) was given on April 2010. After a period of inactivity, firm proposes another $0.10 per share or (S$40.5mn) ex 13, payable 29 July 2010.

    • Cash pre both dividend is S$188.416mn or S$0.46 per share
    • Borrowings are at S$0.371mn 
    • Share number is at 405.522704 mn x price of S$0.26 (close) = S$105.43 mn
    • Price rallied to S$0.330 today alone
    • After giving the latest dividend, firm will still have S$87.04mn or S$0.21
    • A fair price range to exit will be S$0.28-S$0.31and lower for buy in ranges

    • Current price is way over the distribution and overall value of the firm
    • Decided to not take action on this due to low margin of safety
      • Was unwilling to lock up capital at S$0.26/sh and wait out for the S$0.05/sh increase
      • The wait out I deemed unlikely since it has given a prior S$0.15/sh dividend and management should use the remaining cash to strengthen their very weak operations
    • Turns out I was wrong and underestimated the forces of "activist" shareholders and the ownership of LAP stock by the manager himself

    • Amid the flurry buying the counter, one has to note their operating business is getting poorer QoQ
    • Top line has been reduced substantially even though they attempted to increase capex for their quick lime business

    Friday, June 18, 2010

    Javelin Pharmaceutical (JAV US) AMEX

    I'll do a lengthy write up on a firm I have been following in the US. It will not be in the usual format since this firm is not a buy for operations story but more of market action play.
    • Specialty pharma focusing on pain management 
    • Currently US$1.42 * 67.8m = US$91.99m 
    • 1 marketed product Dyloject in Europe
      • Submitted US New Drug Application (NDA) Dyloject formal review accepted
      • 2 drug candidates in Phase III clinical development: READ HERE 
        • Ereska (intranasal ketamine) and 
        • Rylomine (intranasal morphine)
    • 6 Aug 2009 
      • Unamed European pharma gave prelim interest
      • Stock exchange worth US$2.20 / sh
      • This was not disclosed till 12 Feb 2010
    • 30 Aug 2009
      • Separate firm offered US$2.47 / sh stock swap
      • Revised from previous $2 / sh offered on 7 Aug 2009 
    • 10 Dec 2009 
      • Another firm gave US$ 2 / sh in cash but JAV rejected due to lack of financing facilities and insufficient due diliegence 
    • 18 Dec 2009 
      • Myriad Pharma agrees to takeover JAV (0.282 MYRX sh per JAV)
      • 22% over previous close of US$1.50 
      • Ratio will decrease as the FDA approval date for Dyloject stretches out 
      • US$6m of working capital financing was provided by 1Q2010 by MYRX prior to deal close
    • 3 Mar 2010 
      • Millenium mgmt, owns 7% of JAV reject MYRX offer, JAV price down 
    • 12 Apr 2010 
      • Hospira (HSP) offers US$2.20 / sh in cash 
      • Working capital will be provided by HSC to JAV 
        • US$4.5m for operations 
        • US$8.3m for repayment of working facilities from MYRX 
        • US$4.4m termination fee 
      • Announced 5 day period for MYRX to better the offer, if not to proceed with HSP offer
      • JAV price up 60% to US$2.15 and MYRX up 10% 
    • 19 Apr 2010 
      • Terminate offer with MYRX 
    • 19 May 2010
      • HSP extended offer to June 2 after 79% of shares tendered 
      • extended based on "not all conditions met"
      • UK supply issue for Dyloject was brought up, JAV down 17% 
    • 24 May 2010 
      • White particulate found in Dyloject in Europe, reported to DMRC+MHRA 
      • Stock down another 30% at US$1.26, gross spread at 76% 
    • 3 June 2010
      • JAV filed suit (Delaware) against HSP (to payup for tendered shares and complete the takeover, expediting process for trials) and a US$ 2 mil loan on June 1
      • HSP extened offer from June 3 to 16 
      • HSP counsel mentioned drug recall could result in "Material Adverse Effect" (MAC) defined in the merger agreement since it is the sole product online for the firm. Onus will be for the claimant (HSP) to prove the facts and is not easy to invoke
      • There is a forward-looking element of “reasonably be expected to result” in the closing condition later in the merger agreement. Moreover, there are exclusions to this M.A.C. definition, but none appear applicable
      • The M.A.C. is not defined to include any material adverse change in Javelin’s prospects and only includes a less demanding forward-looking element. READ HERE
    • 4 June 2010 
      •  Court granted the motion to expedite the process 
      • NYSE informed JAV of going concern risks and may violate NYSE rules 
    • 11 June 2010 
      • JAV announced US$2mn loan from HSP extended 

    OTHER FACTS (certain facts from Seeking Alpha)
    1. HSP CEO publicly stated he likes the product at the Sanford C. Bernstein's 26th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference 2010 on June 2nd, one day before the second extension
    2. Dyloject on markets since 2007, its a new formulation of an 30 yr old generic drug Dicoflenac. Its a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)
      • Favorable alternative to Keterolac, the only NSAID drug out there with a black box warning and US$300m in sales each year. (Source:
    3. HSP core business is in drug delivery and less so of drugs itself 
    4. HSP is buying Dyloject mainly for US and potential pipelines
    5. Issue in Europe is mainly the drug from the JV of Therabel and JAV
    6. JAV insistent of a financing facility shows their weak financial position
    7. Ereska and Rylomine both in favourable phase III trials 
      • Ereska has strong military application with Dept of Defense forking out US$4mn for research 
      • Rylomine put on the backburner to sloe cash burn 
    • As of May 2010, JAV has US$ 1.63 mn cash, total debt of US$ 6.3 mn and equity negative US$13.4mn 
    • Sales revenue of US$4.8mn in 2009 is solely from Europe operations
    • Cash burn ranged from US$30 - 40mn p.a
    • Firm has financed this with raising cash from exercising of stock options
    • Cumulative R&D expense for the 3 drugs Dyloject, Ereska and Rylomine stands at US$111.3mn and  is $61.2, $31.1 and $19.0 mn respectively from the SEC filings HERE
    • Pain management drug market will hit US$40 bn
    • Issue is with distribution, not the drug itself (which is what HSP is buying for - THE DRUG!)
    • The risks are not low. Interesting to look into this one
    • JAV is definitely worth more than the current price of US$91mn but how much more?
      • Downside is limited based on past price ranges, however there is a risk of it going lower due to deterioration of the financial position of JAV
    • I would expect either
      1. HPS walks away from the deal
        • need to prove M.A.C (difficult) and recall of drug is isolated to the Europe delivery and likely not to be the drug issue since it was tested and proven safe
        • JAV likely to chase after HPS 
      2. HPS offers again but lowers price 
        • Depends on JAV reaction, not likely after the immediate legal action by JAV after HPS tried to pull out earlier in June.  Guess JAV management understands the firm is fairly undervalued from the exercising of stock options recently and deferring their compensation
      3. HPS takes the current offer at current price 
        • Proving M.A.C fails and after all HPS needs JAV drugs 
      4. 3rd party comes in with higher offer than HPS
        • Given the efficacy and relative safety of the drug, low cash position, low market cap, late stage pipeline, remoteness of the Europe event
    So as one can observe, there still is quite a good chance #3 and #4 will happen and therein lies a considerable amount of upside for JAV. Its price before the whole action started was US$1.50 and now it is US$1.42 and this the historical low of the stock since long time ago, yet current situation of the firm (less the financials) looks very promising.

    Disclaimer: No position in JAV