S chips

A couple of emails and messages from friends came in after another one of the S chips reported audit irregularities. It is not surprising, especially after I highlighted some companies during our discussions which later turn out to have problems.


I was disturbed by the various sell side research analyst, brokerage houses and some related forum writers (some of whom are trusted and appear on public frequently). They issued a constant flow of reports urging people to buy S chips and high yield dual listing counters without a concern for whom the target audience are and what are the effects. 


Let me set it here, most of the readers are mid to old age folks who are investing their nest eggs. True in that caveat emptor and it is their choice to invest, but seriously, you do not shun away from liability just by writing irresponsibly, unintelligently and covered by a disclaimer! 


As such, I think it is appropriate for me to share with readers some of my means to avoid these pitsfalls and elaborate which other counters I think is best avoided. (Not saying theres fraud or whatsoever, but to exercise more caution)


Firstly, S chips are cheap for a reason and we all know that. One has to not only dig deep into the numbers,read every single footnote carefully but also understand whats going on and take a step back and look at the big picture. Ask yourself "Does it all make sense"? If investing is like investigation, then investing in S chip, SMEs will have to be investigation on steriods.


There are many factors to look at it and I will draw a brief outline which is time tested and certainly effective across business cycles. Please look at the cases individually in entirety, it does not mean low PE, PB is good and neither does large cash position and no dividends means it is bad. Bear with me, it will be a little long winded. 


Framework 

1. Financials 
• Do the numbers in Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow all tie in?
• Look at balance sheet and cashflow and specifically track the uses and sources of funds and understand the rationale of the changes.
• Also look at operating assets and relationship to revenue and cashflows such as receivables, fixed assets etc
• Are there funky valuations or calculations? For example how China Milk uses fair value accounting for milk 
• Do not assume the numbers are right but try to understand the business before dissecting the numbers. 
• For example, for a certain industry and for firm X with a certain size, what should be an appropriate revenue and margins, what are the returns expected and requisite cash flows. If numbers differ vastly, attention is needed.
2. Management of the firm 
• Whats the background of the management? 
• Is the management heavily vested and does he sound vested? (Ex.Sinomem CEO sound disinterested in whats his expansion plans are - we shall see how the takeover turnsout)
• Any unusual transactions or details of the management? Example share sale.
3. Officers of the firm 
• Who are the auditors? were there discrepancies or multiple changes? especially if its due to disagreement to audit fees 
• Who are the sponsors? Are they of high quality?
• Are the independent directors relevant and are they related to the executive board?
4. Corporate action
• Dividend history? If no, see if retained earnings give rise to better profitability.
• Were there cases of raising capital even when firm is profitable and has hoardes of cash?
• Interpersonal or related party loans and transactions especially with offshore entities
• Dual listing simply means larger investor base at a higher than current cost of capital over time since there are listing fees and an overenthusiatic investor's expectations 
5. Business
• Understand the business cycles and find out why the firm is so profitable when others are not and vice versa. This is especially so for firms with no competitive advantage and/or no dominant market position
6. Logic 
• Many other considerations fall in this category where it is a combination or a factor not listed above.
• Look and the company and think about what it has done and if it is logical. For example;
• Did the firm issue equity at a large discount to market price even when their current valuations are cheap?
• does a firm invest heavily even when utilization rates are low?
• saying that it is hard to get loans in China thats why maintaining low loan amount simply doesnt make sense. Officers were essentially pushing loans in 2009/10

Below is a incomplete list of S chip firms which I have been tracking on and off and there may be a lot others out there which I may not have the time to go through such as Guanzhao Industrial forest. While such actions once carried has to be perpetuated, such constant actions can be spotted and reveal facts. Just as Erasmus mentioned, "A rolling loan gathers no loss", so is a fraud until the whole act breaks apart.


Hopefully this post will save some investors out there. Remember, look beyond the numbers!!!

Fraud Schips China Gaoxian Hongxing Hongwei

Some overview of valuations and impacts

I was thinking about this one night and did up some quick calculations.
QE2 is ending June 2011, of which a total of $2.2 trillion were released (QE 1 + 2). (All USD)

To paint a perspective:

• SGX mkt cap is $600 bn
• HKEX is $2.7 tr, Japan $3.8 tr, US is abt $20 tr mkt cap 
• World mkt cap is about $50 tr, so QE is abt 4.4% 
• Asia exchanges are mostly 1 trillion or less except for China, Japan and Hong Kong
• Est. about 7 significant exchanges in Asia, so its $7 trillion +2.7 + 3.8 = $13.5 tr
• With investors for QE 2 money investing 40/60 in west/east investment allocation,
• QE 2 withdrawal will at least bring a 10% decline in indices 
• A 50/50 will mean 8.8% decline and 0/100 hints at over 16%
• I am assuming money goes to equities, as everyone has been "Buy stocks, sell bonds"
• This excludes money propping the markets 60% from the lows when world grew <10%
• But of cos, the sharp decline in 2008 was oversold largely due to fear
• Now investors will invest only in higher quality indices
• Likely declines in excess of the estimated figures for the better indices, HKEX, SGX etc 

Japan has 55 reactors in the nation, although not all in the hot spot, still poses a major headache and a high probability of another accident on top of an unlikely second natural disaster. So if you think that the recent 15% decline over 2 days for Japan seems to be it, perhaps one should reassess the situation. The odds are high, and causal losses high. I will try to display some compelling figures to back up my point.


On the sides, if you are able, lend the Japan a helping hand. I am impressed by the attitudes and the "non exploitation" of situations in the nation vis the chaos and looting seen during Hurricane Katrina at Oregon.

QE Quantitative easing Japan Disaster

Brightworld Precision (SGX)

Firm is a China based 'S' chip that manufactures metal stamping machines.The machines help manufacturers produce the frame of the train carriage (10% of sales in 1-2 year time), home appliances (34% of sales) and car chasis (32% sales). 


Recently they had a good book order from a China state owned Rail company (CNR). Firm grew their profits on average of 14.8% annually and is currently at 9x PER. Management is stated to be confident of at least 40% rise in profits for 2011 as it doubled for 2010. 


Whats interesting is that it is now branded as one of the "premiere" S chips that gives out large dividends (by S chip measures, latest yield is around 4%) and with a government infrastructure expansion, RMB150 billion per year investment in railroad for next few years and automobile boom supported a spin to its story. Bright world is likely to see some very strong interest in the coming months. It also helps the insiders own over 77%, making this firm a likely privatization candidate given its strategic position. 


Do note the products are still not too differentiated which explains the price impact on sales in 2009. 


Disclaimer: The author has a small position in this counter for experimental purposes.


Bright world Brightworld

Bonus

I was just reminded that a bonus share issue is a neutral action, with no change to valuations.
Well that is unless the crowd has sentiments on a counter in either direction.