A short summary:
- CMBS delinquency is still rising (in the US 700 billion market)
- Realpoint estimates delinquencies at over 6%, TREPP estimates it at over 10% (highest ever)
- With extended "Stay hotel" loans and $ 3 billion Peter Cooper village / Stuyvesant Town (which is still current on payments at the moment), total unpaid loans to hit US 60-70 billion by mid 2010
- delinquencies estimated to hit 8-9% by then and 10-11% by end 2010
- This is on top of record vacancies
And for the corporate debt sector
- Standard and Poors has a report online on corporate debt maturity
- As discussed with many of you, a bulk of the maturity will kick in at 2011/12 till 2015
- Alot of firms especially non financials in US will have issues in that period
- Get the report here
I will follow up with some thoughts on out credit driven economy in the next post tomorrow.
